I first heard about Factfulness by Hans Rosling when it was recommended by Bill Gates who went on to say it is “one of the most important books I’ve ever read”.
To be honest, it took me a while to get through this book, so was very pleased when I finished it.
It is an interesting book in that it suggests that we alter our mindsets when it comes to understanding the world around us and not giving in to our assumptions and instincts and instead taking a factful approach to how we perceive the world.
Here are some of the main takeaways as I saw them.
Stop saying developing and developed
Hans Rosling advocates for abandoning the simplistic classification of countries as "developed" or "developing" and instead proposes a more nuanced approach. He suggests using four income levels to better capture the diverse realities of countries around the world.
Here are the four income levels he proposes:
Level 1, or Low Income countries, often grapple with extreme poverty, limited access to education and healthcare, and basic infrastructure challenges. For instance, many Sub-Saharan African nations fall into this category.
Level 2, or Lower-Middle Income countries, have made progress in areas like education and healthcare, yet they still face economic challenges and infrastructure gaps. This includes parts of South Asia and certain countries in Latin America.
Level 3, or Upper-Middle Income countries, includes countries that have experienced significant economic growth and improvements in living standards. However, they may still encounter social and environmental challenges. Examples of such countries include China, Brazil, and South Africa.
Level 4, or High-income countries boast robust economies, advanced infrastructure, and high living standards. Western European nations, the United States, and Japan are typical examples of countries classified in this high-income category.
By using these four income levels, Rosling aims to provide a more accurate and granular understanding of the economic realities and challenges faced by different countries. This approach allows for a more nuanced analysis that goes beyond broad labels and acknowledges the progress and complexities within each category. It encourages a fact-based perspective that considers a range of factors beyond just economic development.
He talks about how certain countries have traversed the levels successfully, and some faster than others and also predicts that there are lucrative investment opportunities in some of these lower levels often overlooked by investors favouring higher levels.
Our assumptions are no more accurate than a chimps guess
Based on his research findings, he presents several examples of how people's assumptions about global trends often faired worse than random guesses, even when compared to chimpanzees around questions like income distribution, child mortality rates, population growth and life expectancy.
The world is better than you think
Hans does a great job of using many examples to show how the world is generally becoming a better place. For example literacy rates, life expectancy, gender equality and child mortality are all showing positive trends over time.
The Instincts
Hans identified how a number of our built in instincts and assumptions actually work against us in understanding the state of the world around us, discussing the problem each of them brings and suggesting ways of overcoming them.
The Gap Instinct
The problem lies in our tendency to oversimplify the world by categorizing it into extreme dichotomies, thus creating an unnecessary gap. For instance, perceiving countries as either "developed" or "developing" overlooks the intricate nuances within each nation. To overcome this, it's crucial to adopt a spectrum mindset.
The Negativity Instinct
Our minds are wired to gravitate toward negative news, which skews our perception of global progress. A classic example is when, despite a city's crime rate dropping, headlines may disproportionately focus on a single incident, fostering a negative outlook. To combat this instinct, actively seeking out positive stories becomes essential. Understanding that progress, even if gradual, is still progress is crucial.
The Straight Line Instinct
The problem arises when we assume that trends will continue in a linear fashion without considering potential fluctuations. For example, projecting consistent economic growth without acknowledging cyclical patterns can lead to misguided expectations. The solution involves considering historical context and being open to the possibility of trends deviating. Embracing a more nuanced understanding of evolving situations allows for better-informed perspectives.
The Fear Instinct
Fearful scenarios often dominate our thoughts, fueled by sensational anecdotes rather than statistical realities. An illustrative example is the overreaction to a rare disease outbreak based on sensationalized news reports. To overcome this instinct, it is imperative to evaluate risks objectively. Considering data and statistical probabilities, and focusing on evidence rather than succumbing to emotions, helps in making more informed decisions.
The Size Instinct
Grasping large numbers is difficult and leads to a skewed perception of global issues. Overcoming this instinct involves breaking down large numbers into smaller, relatable components. Using comparisons that make the magnitude more understandable helps in developing a more accurate perspective.
The Generalization Instinct
The problem stems from drawing broad conclusions based on limited information or stereotypes. An example is assuming everyone from a certain culture is unfriendly based on a few negative encounters. To overcome this instinct, actively seeking diverse perspectives, avoiding assumptions, and recognizing the individuality within groups becomes crucial.
The Destiny Instinct
Believing that certain outcomes are preordained for nations or societies poses a challenge. For instance, assuming a country is destined for success may overlook the role of human choices and unforeseen events. To counter this instinct, it's essential to embrace the idea that outcomes are shaped by a combination of human agency and unpredictable factors, thereby avoiding deterministic thinking.
The Single Perspective Instinct
Viewing issues from a singular viewpoint, often neglecting alternative perspectives, is the core problem. Understanding complex issues through the lens of a single news source, for example is unwise. Overcoming it involves embracing a multidisciplinary approach, considering diverse viewpoints, and appreciating the complexity of issues.
The Blame Instinct
The problem arises when assigning blame simplifies complex situations and may hinder understanding. An example is blaming a particular group for a societal issue without considering systemic factors. To overcome this instinct, seeking to understand contributing factors in a nuanced way rather than resorting to blame based on assumptions becomes paramount.
The Urgency Instinct
A bias towards immediate and dramatic action, often overlooking more effective long-term solutions, presents a challenge. Implementing a quick fix without considering the sustainability of the solution is a classic example. Overcoming this instinct involves balancing urgency with thoughtful, strategic planning, avoiding impulsive decision-making, and prioritizing long-term effectiveness.
Summary
I already try my best to take a pragmatic, measured approach to life and understand all too well the dangers of a dogmatic, oversimplistic approach to life so could easily understand the author's message.
Hans is to be applauded for his solid work in helping people better understand the state of the world, how we comprehend it, and despite our instincts and assumptions, show that it is a heck of a lot better than it used to be and in most (but not all) ways, getting generally better.
Whilst I believe this is an "important book", it wasn't the most "enjoyable" read for me so I will place it on my all-time favourite book list appropriately.
Also, if you are looking for your next read, you may want to check out my website GoodBusinessBooks.com which lists similar books about business, startups, entrepreneurship and personal development.
Sidenote
Some of these bubble charts made me look at the WorldInData.org website and experiment with modelling and interacting with some of the scatter data in three dimensional mixed reality.
